Trump tariffs & touring: What we know so far

Donald Trump’s tariffs have dominated the global discourse for weeks, wreaking havoc on the stock market and creating a “climate of uncertainty” for the international touring business.

The American president last week paused higher tariffs for 90 days (a baseline 10% tax will still apply), but the trade war with China has ramped up with Trump raising tariffs on the country to 145% and China responding with a 125% rate on US imports.

On Friday (11 April), the White House exempted smartphones, computers and some other tech devices from the “reciprocal” tariffs, although Trump has since warned the exemptions will be short-lived.

Peter Heath, MD of PLASA, the lead international membership body for suppliers of technologies and services to the event and entertainment industries, tells IQ the tariff issue was the talk of the town at last week’s Prolight + Sound trade show in Frankfurt, Germany.

“The general consensus is that everybody’s waiting to see what happens next,” reports Heath. “The way that Trump and the administration work, things are kind of fluid, so most of the people I spoke to were saying, ‘Actually, we can’t do anything at the moment.’

“The biggest challenge for many of them is that the supply chain for their products is global – they might get some component parts from the Far East, America and Europe, and then that product may be put together in China. Some organisations, clearly, have started to do models to see what impact that has on their business, and others are just waiting to see what the final version of it is.”

“Clearly, the tariffs are unwelcome… People are still having to wait before they can make firm decisions”

Heath, who has more than 30 years’ industry experience and was previously head of Europe for Japanese music technology giant Roland Corp, elaborates on what that modelling could entail.

“If I’m a manufacturer and 75% of my business is in Europe and the UK, and 25% is in the US, then I’ve only got a 10% tariff on 25% of my business, so how can I spread that load?” he explains. “Can I bury that 10% across the whole of my business, or do I have to put it on the American side? Can I take a little less margin? Can I save a point by using a different component?

“If they’re relying heavily on parts and construction in the Far East – specifically China – then do they need to bring that into Europe? I’m sure some larger companies are looking at those kinds of scenarios.

“Clearly, the tariffs are unwelcome. And not only that, but they aren’t confirmed yet so people are still having to wait before they can make firm decisions about how they run their businesses going into the future.”

Heath suggests that if America’s standoff with the United States persists, it could have further unintended consequences for the European market.

“If the tariffs remain ridiculous, then how China responds is a bigger concern than America in some ways – because the tariffs on Chinese goods coming into Europe are nowhere near the tariffs for Chinese products going into America,” he argues. “China might re-divert all its energies to Europe, in which case a lot of product could be arriving in Europe, flooding an already busy market.”

There is a growing understanding of the likely ramifications of the tariffs for the live industry

While there remains far more questions than answers regarding Trump’s ever-changing plans – leaving many still reluctant to stick their heads above the parapet – there is a growing understanding of the likely ramifications for the live industry.

Some experts have raised the prospect of additional rules limiting the entry of foreign acts into the US, increasing the cost of work permits or complicating the entry visa process. FKA Twigs recently dropped out of this year’s Coachella and the remainder of her April tour dates in North America, due to “ongoing visa issues.”

Dank Live director Esben Marcher, meanwhile, surmised that a global trade war would affect the amount of US bands touring Europe.

“Production costs, which have been on the rise since after Covid, will most likely grow, making it more expensive for all organisers and promoters to set up shows or festivals,” he added.

The prospect of economic depression, perhaps leading to lower disposable income for consumers and hurting ticket sales, is a chief concern.

“One of the greatest worries – which has broad economic implications – is that the trade war will lead to decreased overall consumer spending on entertainment, affecting ticket sales and attendance at live events,” said Canadian Live Music Association (CLMA) president and CEO Erin Benjamin.

“Common sense would dictate that if prices go up, this will result in less disposable income and this may have a detrimental impact on fans buying tickets,” agreed US-based Move Concerts boss Phil Rodriguez, with the caveat that “it really is way too early to be certain of anything”.

“What’s happening right now, might not be happening next week”

Chris May, GM of Vancouver’s BC Place stadium in Canada, spoke of the likelihood of increased costs for goods such as merchandise, as well as building materials, technology and F&B.

Shadows Fall frontman Brian Fair, who works for instrument manufacturer and distributor St Louis Music, expanded on the tariffs’ effect on the music instrument market in a recent blog.

“Our landing costs have sky rocketed and those costs are being turned into higher prices that will unfortunately be handed down to the consumers,” he posted on Threads. “Some of these brands used to be made in the US but that priced them entirely out of the market so production shifted to overseas many years ago.

“I work directly with Main St. brick and mortar music stores, some that are barely scraping by. These increases, no matter how small, will make it even more difficult for these stores to survive. I am by no means an expert on international trade but I am seeing the damage caused by these tariffs first hand and this is just the beginning. Hope there is still a market left once the dust clears.”

Elsewhere, ticketing specialist Tim Chambers laid out concerns for artists including “higher shipping/customs fees, increased visa and performance tax issues, restriction on cross-border collaborations”.

“Also, merchandise is typically mass produced in the Far East or South America and could also be impacted, and in the medium-term instrument costs could increase due to the global supply chain of components,” he added.

Then again, as has been the case since day one, the situation is subject to change. As John Rostron, CEO of the UK’s Association of Independent Festivals, puts it: “What’s happening right now, might not be happening next week.”

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