As the United States approaches yet another critical election, the potential for civil unrest looms large regardless of whether the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, or the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, secures victory. The nation’s current political climate, characterised by intense polarisation and deep-seated mistrust, provides fertile ground for significant disturbances post-election.

The precedent set by the Jan 6th insurrection could evolve into a wider issue even if incarceration doesn’t become a reality for the former POTUS Donald Trump. Understanding the likelihood and potential spread of such unrest, as well as its implications for public life and events, is crucial for anticipating and preparing for the days ahead.

Polarisation and its consequences

The American political landscape has grown increasingly fractured over the past few years. Social media, partisan news outlets, and political rhetoric have all contributed to a society where ideological divides run deep. In this context, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election could act as a catalyst for widespread civil disturbance.

If Donald Trump wins, his supporters may feel vindicated, but those who oppose him – many of whom view his presidency as a threat to democracy – might resort to protests and civil disobedience. Conversely, a Joe Biden victory could provoke Trump loyalists, who might perceive the result as illegitimate yet again, especially in light of debunked claims around election integrity.

Likelihood of riots and civil disturbance

The potential for riots and civil disturbances following the election is high. Historically, the US has witnessed significant unrest in response to contentious political events, such as the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and the January 6 Capitol riot. These events underscore the capacity for rapid mobilisation and the eruption of violence. There is even the prospect, with a Trump win, of martial law.

Major cities like Washington DC, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago are likely epicentres for demonstrations. However, the spread of unrest could extend far beyond these urban centres. The proliferation of social media allows for the rapid dissemination of calls to action, enabling protests and disturbances to spring up in smaller towns and rural areas nationwide.

“Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles”

Implications for mass public gatherings

The prospect of widespread unrest poses significant challenges for mass public gatherings, including concerts and other large-scale events. Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles. Moreover, the fear of violence could deter attendees, leading to lower turnout and financial losses for the entertainment industry.

In addition to heightened security concerns, local governments may impose restrictions or outright bans on large gatherings to prevent potential flashpoints for unrest. This could lead to cancellations or postponements of concerts, sports events, and other public gatherings, impacting not only the entertainment sector but also the broader economy.

Preparing for the future

Given the high stakes of the upcoming election and the potential for significant civil unrest, it is imperative that local and federal authorities, as well as private organisations, prepare accordingly. This includes bolstering security protocols, facilitating dialogue between opposing groups to reduce tensions, and ensuring that law enforcement is prepared to handle potential disturbances with a focus on de-escalation and protecting civil liberties.

In the long term, addressing the root causes of political and social discontent – such as economic inequality, racial injustice, and the erosion of trust in institutions—will be essential to mitigating the risk of future unrest. In the immediate term, the entertainment industry should reckon with a clear need to get ahead of these issues and investigate the possibility of transferring the risk of business interruption and event cancellation to the insurance industry. Another route of course is to deal with the appendices in contracts with agents, venues and promoters contracts with a risk management lens. Taking advice on this should fall to brokers in the space with a special understanding of the market and the issues.

Conclusion

The likelihood of riots, civil disturbance, and unrest in the US following the 2024 presidential election is significant, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden emerges victorious. The potential for such unrest to spread across the country, affecting not just the nation’s capital but also smaller communities, is real and warrants serious consideration. For mass public gatherings, including concerts, this climate of uncertainty necessitates enhanced security and contingency planning. Reviewing business insurance arrangements and contractual force majeure clauses and appendices is essential. As America stands at this crossroads, the actions taken today will shape the ability of the public entertainment industries ability to navigate the challenges of tomorrow.

Matthew Meredith is CEO of LMP Group Entertainment Insurance. 

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Just a few short years ago a global pandemic would have seemed to be something which could only happen in a Stephen King novel, or in science fiction – The Stand, or 28 Days perhaps. The ‘Spanish Flu’ epidemic of 1918/20 notwithstanding, the thought of a virus today bringing the world to a halt, resulting in the deaths of millions of people would have seemed incomprehensible, but the warning signs were already there…

There were some near misses, most recently SARS in 2002 and Avian Flu in 2013, but the effects of these outbreaks were relatively contained, and anyone warning of a global pandemic was largely seen as a conspiracy theorist or worse.

The smart money now is on another pandemic happening sooner, rather than later. Covid is not expected to be a once in a generation occurrence, but, and it is a very BIG but – no-one can predict when or how it is likely to occur, although some studies suggest that there is a 30% chance that another pandemic will hit within the next 10 years. This shouldn’t be taken that we have 10 years to prepare ourselves for the next one as it could occur at any time – in 2024 alone, although not widely reported, there have been outbreaks which could quite easily have escalated very quickly, particularly one outbreak of Avian Flu. Fortunately these were controlled.

The live entertainment business fell off a cliff for a period of time, and it is great testament to all of the people in that industry that the business has recovered incredibly well – pre-Covid annual global live music revenues were $28.56 billion, in 2023 revenues were $28.86 billion, with 2024 expected to be even stronger.

As a direct result of the pandemic, insurance losses are estimated to be $44 billion, which makes the pandemic the third largest insurance loss ever, after 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. Total losses, including uninsured, are calculated to be in the $trillions. It will come as no surprise that insurance companies, realising the sheer magnitude of their losses, retreated to lick their wounds, then applied huge rate hikes, and exclusions to coverage for almost anything Covid-related.

“If an insurance policy provides cover for the non-appearance of an artist due to illness, why should Covid continue to be excluded?”

Non-Appearance insurance and Event Cancellation insurance are essential for savvy promoters, managers, artists and almost every business involved in the staging of live events. So much investment, or potential revenue could be riding on a tour, or even one show – the values can be staggering – the Taylor Swift tour grossed over $1 billion. But since Covid, everyone has had to accept that insurance for this risk – the one that got up and punched the industry on the nose so badly that for some, it was a knock out blow – is one that they have to shoulder themselves. Should insurers now be doing more to offer protection for this?

Well, yes actually, and there are some extremely innovative solutions available now using parametrics, but these solutions really offer balance sheet protection for major corporations rather than for a show or a tour, and the cost is serious – minimum premiums are at least $100k, if not more.

Covid is now part of our lives – most of us consider it to be akin to flu, and if an insurance policy provides cover for the non-appearance of an artist due to illness, why should Covid continue to be excluded?

We’re making headway. Some of the insurers we work with have agreed tentatively to offer cover when an artist cancels a show because they’re suffering from Covid, but there are limitations – the number of shows which can be affected is limited, as is the monetary amount.

It’s not a total solution – that is a very long way off, but it’s a step forward, and every step forward is a step in the right direction for the industry.

lmp-insurance.com/ 

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