Live Nation chief Michael Rapino has reflected on the evolution of the music business and offered a bright forecast for the company’s future in a new interview.

The president and CEO was quizzed about the LN’s impact on the music landscape, ticket pricing and Adele’s triumphant German residency, as well as wider industry issues, at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference.

Live Nation posted $6.02 billion revenue in its most recent financial results covering Q2 2024 – an increase of 7% on the equivalent quarter last year.

Here are a selection of highlights from yesterday’s (10 September) conversation in the US…

On the effect of the internet and streaming…

“For 50 years, the music business was very controlled: record labels, MTV, radio, the gatekeepers. It was entirely a US/Western Europe business: you had 100 dates – you toured 60 in America, 30 in Europe – and that was the only place you could really make money. [Then] everything unlocks, and all of a sudden you have a 14-year-old anywhere in the world with a phone that knows the next Kendrick [Lamar] song. That demand was always there, it was just never marketed to because of the old model. That consumer is now marketed to every day on Instagram, TikTok, Spotify, so that has been the greatest kind of supercharge to the live music business in general. You have this whole new base of global consumers that were under-serviced from an enterprise perspective – venues, ticketing, all of those things in Latin America, South America, Asia – that will get there and make this even a better business.”

On Live Nation’s impact on the music industry…

“For 30/40 years, it was always about the labels. Promoters were always a little ‘Wild West car salesmen’, so we were the first company that kind of professionalised them, brought them together and consolidated them on a global basis, and started setting some new standards. As we saw it, the artists wanted a better service; they wanted someone that thought globally.”

“This has been a very consistent industry. I don’t think there’s another industry that has an 8-9% compounded growth for the last 20-25 years”

On the importance of data to artists…

“They’re brands now and they know where their fans are. We just successfully did this incredible 10-night run with Adele in Munich. The idea that we would sit there and say, ‘We’re going to take a bet that you’re going to sell 700,000 tickets in one city; we’re going to spend $100 million building this incredible temporary stadium with the largest video screen in history,’ you don’t make those bets [without] fan data. Adele would know how many fans she has in Europe; how many in Munich; how many follow her; how big of a potential radius. Artists now are much, much smarter around their data.”

On the growth of the business…

“If we zoom out, this has been a very consistent industry. I don’t think there’s another industry that has an 8-9% compounded growth for the last 20-25 years, through recessions and [everything] else. I believe, in the next decade, that 8-9% will continue to be the beacon. This will be an industry that we should look at to have continual global growth on an annual basis. We doubled our business in two years in 2022 and ’23. We had some incredible pent-up demand, and this year is the first year we’re probably feeling a little bit of the hangover effect of that huge stadium business for two years. So we always knew this year was going to be a little light on stadiums, but we were going to do our best then to monetise our venues, our amphitheatres, where the business walks in our door and we can manage it. The fact that we grew almost 80% for two years – and this year we’re still going to be flat to growth – is exceptional.”

“We know next year is going to be a monster stadium year”

On 2025…

“It’s still early, so most things are set in stone, but there’s always things that shift. But our stadium business in ’25 looks like it’s bigger than ’23 right now. That’s a big number. Our arena business for ’24 looks bigger than it was this year, and we had a good arena year. So we think it’s probably the best of everything next year – a strong hike on the top end and consistent on the amphitheatre end. We know next year is going to be a monster stadium year.”

On ticket pricing…

“As much as it makes headlines on the top end, it’s still the most affordable opportunity out there. On average, 75% of tickets are under $100 and almost half the tickets are under $50. Look at it compared to sports: we’ve never been able to figure out this PR struggle, but in sport it’s like a badge of honour to say the courtside [seats] are $7,000, [yet] you’re horrible if you charge $800 for the front row at a concert. So it’s an incredibly affordable opportunity in the big picture. Music inspires; it’s one of the most passionate consumer experiences. In all of our data, it ranks at number one or two – it’s higher than any other Kodak moment.”

On the future…

“We’re going to be a business that will continually show that the live industry is resilient. Regardless of what economic challenges are going on, I think it’s a very resilient industry. Our job… is to make sure any of the noise on the regulation side doesn’t affect our business. It’s business as usual, pedal down to the ground, and we’re going to grow this business aggressively, as we have. And we think we’ll continually be the story that overdelivers.”

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Ticketing and event discovery platform Dice is reportedly in discussions to sell a “significant stake” that would value the company at hundreds of millions of dollars.

Bloomberg reports that Dice initiated a more formal process after being approached by a prospective buyer, with one of its biggest investors, Softbank, keen to sell its stake.

Citing “conversations with a few people directly involved”, Bloomberg notes that three of the interested parties are private equity firms.

Launched in the UK in 2014, Dice currently operates in the UK, US, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy and Spain. It declared its intention to step up its global expansion plans last summer after raising a $65 million funding round led by music-focused investment company MUSIC.

Dice declined to comment on the report when approached by IQ.

Dice’s most recent accounts, filed in the UK with Companies House, show that its net revenue increased 360% from $6m in the pandemic-hit 2021 to $28m in 2022, powered by “continued expansion in existing territories alongside expansion into new markets”.

The group made a $50m loss for the financial year “largely driven by the successful move into North America and the continued R&D investment into building the leading global discovery platform”. Net assets were $40m.

Elsewhere in the sector, CTS Eventim recently completed the acquisition of Vivendi’s festival and international ticketing businesses in a €300m deal.

Global creative engineering group for live experiences Tait has just announced equity investment from Goldman Sachs

The links with private equity companies mark a continuation of the increasingly close ties between the international touring industry and PE.

American global investment firm KKR acquired festival giant Superstruct Entertainment from Providence in a €1.3 billion deal last month, while Tait, the global creative engineering group for live experiences, has just announced equity investment from Goldman Sachs Alternatives’ private equity business.

Goldman Sachs will acquire a majority stake in the company from affiliates of Providence Equity Partners. Pennsylvania-headquartered Tait, which opened a UK base in London this year, designs, constructs, manufactures and operates stages and installations for clients including Taylor Swift, Cirque Du Soleil, Royal Opera House, NASA, National Geographic, Beyoncé and The Olympics.

“Since its inception, Tait has partnered with clients across the globe to bring visionary concepts to reality and create extraordinary live experiences,” says Tait CEO Adam Davis. “As we look to our future – where the digital and physical worlds seamlessly merge into bespoke, individually tailored events, we are thrilled to partner with Goldman Sachs. This collaboration will unlock new opportunities and reinforce Tait’s position as an industry leader in delivering culture-defining experiences.

“Goldman Sachs’ network and expertise will enable us to grow our global footprint and offerings, empowering the company to better serve clients, drive innovation, and pioneer new technology.”

Financial details of the deal were not disclosed.

“We believe that Tait is exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds as the entertainment space continues to grow in scale and complexity, and see tremendous value creation opportunities for Tait as the company continues to broaden its technology offering and market coverage,” adds Simon Kubbies, MD at Goldman Sachs Alternatives.

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The strength of the live business has led Goldman Sachs to raise its forecast for the global music industry for this year and beyond.

The investment bank and research firm has published the latest edition of its Music in the Air report, which projects overall revenue growth of 7.9% year-on-year in 2024, and expects it to sustain that rate of growth throughout the decade.

Central to its forecast, as per Music Week, is the performance of the live sector, which achieved net revenue growth of 25% in 2023 – hugely outperforming its forecast of just 6%. The live market is now 20% above pre-Covid 2019 levels.

“This is driven in our view by a strong schedule that featured many artists who had not toured since pre-Covid, in particular Taylor Swift and Beyonce, driving both attendance (owing to larger venues) and pricing power (due to perceived scarcity of these artists in the short term),” states the report.

“This also once again demonstrates the resilience of concert spending amidst elevated inflation and pressure on consumer spending”

“This also once again demonstrates the resilience of concert spending amidst elevated inflation and pressure on consumer spending, and the growing structural demand for experiences, particularly amongst Gen Z and Millennials.”

Goldman Sachs is forecasting the industry’s 2024-30 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will increase from 7.4% to 7.6%, delivering a 12% increase in global music market net revenue to $116.5 billion by 2030.

It predicts live music to be worth $35.1bn in net revenues this year, increasing 47.3% to $51.7bn by 2030, while also raising its CAGR forecast up to 2030 by approximately 1.6 points to 6.6%.

Research for the report was conducted by Lisa Yang, MD, media & internet, global investment research, along with fellow Goldman Sachs analysts.

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Live entertainment discovery platform Fever has reportedly generated a further US$110 million (€103m) in a new venture funding round, giving the company a valuation of $1.8 billion.

According to tech.eu, the funding round was led by Goldman Sachs and attracted investors such as Eurazeo, Convivialité Ventures, Goodwater Capital, Alignment Growth, Vitruvian Partners and Smash Capital, and will enable the firm to invest in new content opportunities.

Based in Madrid, Spain and New York, US, Fever is led by Spaniards Ignacio Bachiller Ströhlein, Alexandre Perez Casares and Francisco Hein,  and raised $227m in a previous funding round 12 months ago.

The platform makes personalised recommendations for users to enjoy unique, in-person local experiences such as immersive exhibitions, interactive theatrical experiences and festivals.

The firm says it has doubled its turnover in the past year, with North America now comprising over 50% of its revenues

It also collaborates with event organisers to create new attractions through its Fever Originals series, including its Candlelight Concert series in London, which has showcased the music of Hans Zimmer, Taylor Swift and Coldplay, among others.

The firm says it has doubled its turnover in the past year, with North America now comprising over 50% of its revenues. It has expanded its international presence from three cities six years ago, to dozens of cities across Europe, America, Asia, and Oceania.

“Fever’s success is underpinned by smart technology, amazing partnerships, and dedicated creators – three factors which we believe will ensure its continued growth and expansion in the future,” said Stephen Kerns of Goldman Sachs Asset Management last year.

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Atwater Capital, a media and entertainment-focused investment firm, has drawn funding from investment behemoths Goldman Sachs Petershill and KKR.

According to the company, the funding will increase the total backing of Atwater’s new Atwater Capital Fund I, LP to over $100 million.

Atwater’s portfolio includes 88rising, a US-based artist management company, record label and media brand focused on Asian and Asian American artists that hosts the Head in the Clouds festival in Los Angeles and now, Jakarta, Indonesia.

The firm is also a backer of Swedish royalty-free soundtrack provider Epidemic Sound, and wiip Productions, the independent studio behind TV shows such as Mare of Easttown and The Summer I Turned Pretty, among others.

Atwater was founded in 2017 by Vania Schlogel, who sits on the board of Epidemic Sound as a director. She previously served as its chairwoman from 2017 to January of this year, when she was succeeded by former Shazam boss Andrew Fisher.

“It is a hugely exciting time to be investing in media and entertainment, an asset class which is acyclical and buoyed by both digitisation and significant growth in global demand,” says Schlogel.

“We view the commitments from these two blue-chip financial institutions as a strong confirmation of [our] long-term vision”

“We are delighted to be able to partner with Goldman Sachs Petershill, a recognised leader in sponsoring and supporting private equity firms globally, alongside the world-class team at KKR, as we launch our inaugural fund. We view the anchor commitments from these two blue-chip financial institutions as a strong confirmation of the long-term vision that we have for the Atwater platform.”

Schlogel served as a former member of KKR’s Private Equity team from 2009 to 2014, specialising in the media sector. She is also known as the former chief investment officer of Roc Nation, and the CIO of another then-Jay-Z-owned company, TIDAL.

“We are delighted to invest with Vania and her team as they identify and back a group of extraordinary media and entertainment entrepreneurs,” says KKR partners Philipp Freise and Ted Oberwager.

Alisa Amarosa Wood, partner at KKR, adds: “This is the continuation of the great relationship we have built over many years of collaboration with Vania – from her time at KKR and beyond. She shares our values, our partnership-oriented approach, and we are truly thrilled to be investing alongside her in this new endeavour.”

Christian von Schimmelmann, co-head of Goldman Sachs Petershill, adds: “We have a history of partnering with successful private equity firms globally and are excited to welcome Atwater as a natural addition to the Goldman Sachs Petershill family.”

“We look forward to providing strategic support as Atwater builds upon its history of investing in groundbreaking people and the companies they operate.”

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Music, travel and experiences start-up Pollen has reportedly drafted in Goldman Sachs as it seeks to find a buyer.

The report by Sky News says Pollen is working with the investment bank to secure new funding, with indicative bids due earlier this month, and has asked restructuring specialist Kroll to assist with the process, although it is suggested that Kroll’s involvement is limited to Pollen’s student travel division.

A spokesperson for Pollen declined to comment on the report.

Founded in 2014 by brothers Callum and Liam Negus-Fancey, London-headquartered Pollen has organised artist-curated weekenders such as a Bring Me The Horizon four-day festival in Malta, the Unruly Culture Splash Weekender in Croatia with Popcaan, Diplo’s Higher Ground festival in Cabo, Mexico and Justin Bieber & Friends in Las Vegas, US. Its latest collaboration, Green Light Gang with 50 Cent, is set for Malta from 22-26 September.

The company raised US$150 million in a Series C round in April, only to let over 150 members of staff go in the UK and US a month later.

“As part of closing our Series C round, we agreed on a new plan with our investors where we will continue to show strong growth while taking the business to profitability faster through greater focus and cutting our costs by 15%,” Callum Negus-Fancey told Music Business Worldwide.

“All shareholders are really supportive of our change in strategy and agree it’s the best way to succeed and create value in the current environment”

Pollen Presents head of partnerships Zeon Richards also departed the firm this summer “citing practices within the company which do not align with my ethics”.

A report by Sifted said that Pollen had missed its June payroll and was working to “secure new funding, potentially in the form of an acquisition”. Pollen described the payroll “mis-timing” was an “an isolated, one-off event”.

In a press release earlier this month, the firm announced it was “moving from being a venture-backed loss making technology company focused on topline growth to an experiences and entertainment company focused on sustainable profitability”.

“All shareholders are really supportive of our change in strategy and agree it’s the best way to succeed and create value in the current environment,” added the statement.

Pollen runs two offerings: Pollen Presents, which curates experiences for customers across travel, music, and more; and Pollen+ which partners with promoters and music festivals to offer customers who book through its platforms perks at events.

The company previously raised over $100m in venture capital funding from investors including Kindred, Northzone, Sienna Capital, Backed and Draper Spirit.

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Live entertainment discovery platform Fever has raised $227 million in a funding round that values the company at more than $1 billion (€900m).

Led by Goldman Sachs, the round is said to be the largest ever for a live entertainment tech startup and attracted investors including Alignment Growth, Goodwater Capital and Smash Capital. Eurazeo and Vitruvian Partners have also participated through a secondary investment of an undisclosed amount.

Based in Madrid, Spain and New York, US, Fever is led by Spaniards Ignacio Bachiller Ströhlein, Alexandre Perez Casares, and Francisco Hein. The platform makes personalised recommendations for users to enjoy unique, in-person local experiences such as immersive exhibitions, interactive theatrical experiences and festivals. It also collaborates with event organisers to create new attractions through its Fever Originals series.

“Despite the challenges of the pandemic and the novelty of the metaverse, there has never been a better time for thrilling and well-curated IRL events”

“We’re proud of our role in empowering experience creators to deliver memorable real-life experiences to millions around the world seeking to share unique moments,” says Fever CEO Bachiller Ströhlein. “Despite the challenges of the pandemic and the novelty of the metaverse, there has never been a better time for thrilling and well-curated IRL [in real life] events. Fever and the amazing event creators who use our platform are well-placed to meet the zeitgeist.”

Fever, whose largest market is the US, has grown its revenues 10x since its last financing round in 2019 and has expanded its international presence from three cities five years ago, to over 60 cities across Europe, America, Asia, and Oceania.

“Fever’s ability to grow revenue ten-fold in the last two years demonstrates both the strength of its team and the enduring demand for real-life experiences,” says Stephen Kerns, MD in the growth equity business within Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

“Fever’s success is underpinned by smart technology, amazing partnerships, and dedicated creators –three factors which we believe will ensure its continued growth and expansion in the future. We are thrilled to support Fever’s team in its mission of making culture and entertainment more accessible across the world.”

Upcoming Fever Orginals include its Candlelight Concert series in London, showcasing the music of Hans Zimmer (Central Hall, Westminster, Taylor Swift (Butchers Hall) and Coldplay (Southwark Cathedral).

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The money generated by live music ticket sales and sponsorships has fallen 64% in 2020, with nearly US$18 billion having been wiped off the value of the international concert industry this year alone.

That’s according to the latest figures from auditing firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), whose new Global Entertainment & Media Outlook illustrates for the first time the economic devastation wrought by the novel coronavirus and subsequent restrictions on staging live events.

The Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2020–2024 – whose forerunner, the pre-coronavirus Outlook 2019–2023, predicted average annual live music growth of 3.33% through 2023 – revises that figure down to 1.4% (2019–24) to reflect the impact of Covid-19.

In total, live music will generate a projected $10.4bn ($8.3bn ticket sales + $2.1bn sponsorship) in 2020 – down from nearly $29bn in 2019, and far short of the $30.4bn generated by recorded music this year, according to the report. The fall in live revenues has also helped wiped some $17bn off the value of the global music industry as a whole, as the chart below (which covers 2015–24) shows:

This year marks the first time since the great recording industry slump of the 2000s – when touring overtook physical sales as artists’ main source of revenue – that the recorded sector (including digital) has been worth more than live, reflecting continued strong growth in music streaming, particularly during the Covid-19 era.

Music streaming specifically is worth $20.4bn in 2020, with a predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.32% up to and including 2024.

The global concert industry’s revenues in 2022 will be $29.3bn – over $300m higher than in 2019

Recorded music isn’t the only sector to have done well out of lockdown. Where physical experiences, such as live music, cinema and theatre, have been particularly hard hit by the downturn, home entertainment is booming, according to PwC, with video games (as previously noted by IQ) and ‘over-the-top’ (OTT) video – ie Netflix and other video streaming services – the chief “beneficiaries” of the Covid-19 crisis.

In the UK alone, OTT video revenue has “surge[d] by 18.6% in 2020, to £1.6bn”, the report notes, while videogame consumption is up 9.7%. “Overall, the video games industry is forecast for 9% growth this year, amounting to £5.2bn, and by 2024 the sector will be worth £6.8bn at a CAGR of 7%,” it continues.

But it’s not all bad news for live. Far from it: The 2020–2024 Outlook shows that live music will rebound in 2021, with worldwide revenues growing by 82.6%, to over $19bn, as concerts resume.

Mark Maitland, PwC’s UK head of entertainment and media, says a similarly strong recovery is expected in 2021 for other industries reliant on “in-person” experiences.

“Parts of the media sector have been hit very hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in-person activities or those reliant on advertising revenue,” he explains. “This will drive a c. 7% decline in sector revenues in 2020, but in recent months we have already seen improving performance, and as such, we expect the sector revenues to return to 2019 levels in 2021.”

Looking further ahead, PwC’s numbers tally with previous predictions made by investment bank Goldman Sachs – another seasoned music industry observer – whose head of media and internet research, Lisa Yang, said at iFF last week she expects the live music industry’s recovery to be complete by 2022.

PwC forecasts “live music to bounce back immediately next year”

Similarly, the Outlook 2020–2024 shows global revenues of $29.3bn – over $300m higher than in 2019 – for the concert industry in 2022, with ticket sales having rebounded to $23.3bn, compared to $22.9bn in 2019.

Despite a ‘lost’ year in 2020, then, PwC’s analysts see consistent growth for live music in the years ahead, noting that even though the business has ground to a halt, M&A activity continues.

“With global live music revenue expected to grow at a 1.4% CAGR, despite disruption to the sector in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic there is much to gain from having a broad-based live offering,” reads the report.

“Providing more venues reopen,” PwC UK forecasts “live music to bounce back immediately next year from its growth loss this year”.

Highlighting how live businesses have embraced technology to connect with fans during the concert shutdown (giving the recent virtual Wireless Connect festival as an example), Maitland notes that industries which have diversified into digital are the ones best placed to bounce back quickly after the coronavirus threat has passed.

“Some parts of the [entertainment] sector, such as gaming and OTT video, have been beneficiaries during the pandemic, and we expect these to continue to prosper, with many ‘lockdown habits’ continuing far beyond lockdown,” he explains.

“For sectors adversely affected by the pandemic, this has brought forward some of the digital disruption prophesied to come years later, and it has reinforced the digitisation of the industry. This is reflected in [the fact that] industries that are forecast to claw back their lost revenue are ones being driven by, or have embraced, technology as a way to connect with consumers.”

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Investment bank and research firm Goldman Sachs has forecast a strong rebound for the live industry in 2021, in its 2020 Music in the Air report.

In 2016, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air: Stairway to Heaven report predicted that the live industry would grow by US$14 billion by 2030, with the sector benefitting from a greater preference for experiences among millennials and Generation Z, as well as access to new tech and data to help boost ticket sales.

Now, the bank has released a second report, which gives revenue projections for the music industry – comprising live, recorded and publishing – in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The report lowers its pre-pandemic forecast for the live industry by more than 75%, down to $7 billion, but predicts it will climb back to pre-Covid-19 levels within two years.

The report forecasts a “strong rebound in outer years”, predicting 26% revenue growth in 2021 and a further 18% increase in 2022

Lisa Yang, managing director of media and internet equity research at Goldman, says that up to 80% of all events scheduled for 2020 will be cancelled or postponed with a “gradual recovery” beginning from Q4.

The report forecasts a “strong rebound in outer years”, predicting 26% revenue growth in 2021 and a further 18% increase in 2022.

Yang displays confidence in the willingness of fans to return to live events, but states that the pace and timing of recovery will depend on the health and safety regulations around the world.

The bank’s long-term forecast looks positive for the industry, which it predicts will be worth $38 billion by 2030, putting the sector’s annual growth rate (CAGR) at 6% for the period of 2019 to 2030.

Yang also notes the success the industry has had with new methods of monetising and novel livestream models, making special mention to Travis Scott’s recent in-game performance in Fortnite, which attracted over 12 million concurrent viewers.

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Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has begun tracking Live Nation’s financial performance, assigning the company’s stocks a ‘buy’ rating following a period of sustained growth.

Shares in Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), which trades on the New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange, today reached an all-time high of US$31.31. Goldman analysts have given Live Nation stocks a target price of $35.

Outlining the logic behind the buy rating, CNBC reports Goldman Sachs’s Drew Borst told clients: “As the world’s largest concert promoter […] and ticketing platform, LYV is uniquely positioned to benefit from secular growth in global concerts and gain marketshare.

“Touring has become increasingly important to artists’ income, given the decline in album sales. On the demand side, the millennial ‘experience economy’ is fuelling steady attendance growth in a wide array of live music events.”

“Live Nation is uniquely positioned to benefit from secular growth in global concerts and gain marketshare”

Live Nation recorded record revenue for the sixth year running in 2016, growing turnover 15% to $8.4 billion.

However, Brandon Ross, an analyst for financial services firm BTIG, warns the profitability of Ticketmaster could be undermined in the long term by Amazon Tickets, which is gearing up for expansion in the US and strengthening its ties with Live Nation rival AEG.

He notes Amazon “has the aptitude to become [a music] industry player, if it can gain access to US tickets market”,  and can “target casual shoppers from its large userbase, bundling tickets with other products”.

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