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Trump wins: What now for the touring business?

Donald Trump’s stunning re-election has sent stocks soaring on Wall Street, while leaving more questions than answers for the touring business.

The Republican candidate, who will become only the second US president after Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House, hailed a “magnificent victory for the American people” after defeating Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in what had been predicted to be one of closest races in history.

VP Harris had received the endorsement of a parade of A-list artists including Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Lady Gaga, Cardi B, Ariana Grande, Olivia Rodrigo, John Bon Jovi, Jennifer Lopez, Billie Eilish and Bruce Springsteen, but lost the crucial swing states that decided the election’s fate.

Live Nation’s share price rocketed more than 8% to an all-time high of $127.64 (€119) in the wake of Trump’s triumph, giving the company a market cap of $29 billion.

The vote will inevitably put the US Department of Justice (DOJ) antitrust lawsuit against the company back in the spotlight. After the case, which is set to go to trial in 2026, was filed in May, Live Nation’s EVP, regulatory affairs Dan Wall was asked about the likely implications a Trump victory would have for the suit.

“That’s a tough one, for sure,” he said. “If we just kind of go back in time and you asked me whether I think that the first Trump administration would have brought this case, I would tell you that I don’t think that any prior administration – Republican or Democrat – would have brought this case. But the circumstances, looking to the future, it would depend a lot on who was appointed to these positions, and that just makes it kind of vulnerable.”

“I think the unpredictability of Trump makes it very hard to assume anything with certainty”

Ticketing reform will be another subject on the agenda as the US House of Representatives – control of which was still up in the air at press time – voted to pass the TICKET Act earlier this year. If enacted, it will enforce all-in pricing, ban speculative ticketing, ban deceptive websites and deceptive website marketing, provide fans with a full refund to cancelled events and require a report from the Federal Trade Commission on BOTS Act Enforcement.

President Joe Biden also declared plans to further clamp down on “junk fees” on tickets for events such as concerts.

On the live circuit, international artists are already battling large increases in US visa petition fees, with many acts claiming that touring the US is “no longer viable”. There are also further potential knock-on effects of Trump’s proposed import tariffs for international production, technology and services companies.

Immediate reaction to the result from the music industry to Trump’s victory in the US and UK was in short supply. But as Independent Artist Group EVP, head of global music, Jarred Arfa tells IQ, it is a case of wait and see.

“I think the unpredictability of Trump makes it very hard to assume anything with certainty, though I think it’s safe to assume we will have a DOJ which is friendlier to big corporations and mergers,” he says. “I think the live business will continue to thrive regardless of the election results.”

Phil Rodriguez, boss of Miami-headquartered promoter Move Concerts, adds: “The only possible impact I see is if economy improves and fans have more disposable income, this may result in an increase in concert attendance.

“Other factors may come into play: lower cost of fuel, for example, which impacts many of the costs of touring. We’ll find out soon enough!”

 


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Tenacious D tour cancelled after Trump comment

Jack Black has cancelled the remainder of Tenacious D’s world tour following a controversial onstage joke by bandmate Kyle Gass relating to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

Presenting Gass with a cake to mark his 64th birthday during the comedy duo’s performance at the ICC Sydney Theatre, Australia, on Sunday (14 July), Black told him to “make a wish”, in footage shared online, to which Gass replied: “Don’t miss Trump next time.”

The remark, which came hours after Trump was shot in the ear at a rally in Pennsylvania, US, was mostly met with laughter in the venue, but has since sparked an outcry, with Australian senator Ralph Babet calling for the band to be deported.

“I was blindsided by what was said at the show on Sunday,” says Black on Instagram. “I would never condone hate speech or encourage political violence in any form.

“After much reflection, I no longer feel it is appropriate to continue the Tenacious D tour, and all future creative plans are on hold. I am grateful to the fans for their support and understanding.”

“What happened was a tragedy and I’m incredibly sorry for my severe lack of judgement”

A concert scheduled for Newcastle Entertainment Centre today (16 July), promoted by Frontier Touring, had already been called off shortly before doors were due to open.

Other postponed Spicy Meatball Tour shows in Australia and New Zealand include sold out July dates in Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide, Wellington and Auckland. The pair were also due to short run of US gigs in October.

Prior to Black’s statement, Gass issued a statement on social media, apologising for his actions.

“The line I improvised onstage Sunday night in Sydney was highly inappropriate, dangerous and a terrible mistake,” he said. “I don’t condone violence of any kind, in any form, against anyone. What happened was a tragedy and I’m incredibly sorry for my severe lack of judgement. I profoundly apologise to those I’ve let down and truly regret any pain I’ve caused.”

 


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Post-election: A reflection on America’s future

As the United States approaches yet another critical election, the potential for civil unrest looms large regardless of whether the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, or the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, secures victory. The nation’s current political climate, characterised by intense polarisation and deep-seated mistrust, provides fertile ground for significant disturbances post-election.

The precedent set by the Jan 6th insurrection could evolve into a wider issue even if incarceration doesn’t become a reality for the former POTUS Donald Trump. Understanding the likelihood and potential spread of such unrest, as well as its implications for public life and events, is crucial for anticipating and preparing for the days ahead.

Polarisation and its consequences

The American political landscape has grown increasingly fractured over the past few years. Social media, partisan news outlets, and political rhetoric have all contributed to a society where ideological divides run deep. In this context, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election could act as a catalyst for widespread civil disturbance.

If Donald Trump wins, his supporters may feel vindicated, but those who oppose him – many of whom view his presidency as a threat to democracy – might resort to protests and civil disobedience. Conversely, a Joe Biden victory could provoke Trump loyalists, who might perceive the result as illegitimate yet again, especially in light of debunked claims around election integrity.

Likelihood of riots and civil disturbance

The potential for riots and civil disturbances following the election is high. Historically, the US has witnessed significant unrest in response to contentious political events, such as the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and the January 6 Capitol riot. These events underscore the capacity for rapid mobilisation and the eruption of violence. There is even the prospect, with a Trump win, of martial law.

Major cities like Washington DC, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago are likely epicentres for demonstrations. However, the spread of unrest could extend far beyond these urban centres. The proliferation of social media allows for the rapid dissemination of calls to action, enabling protests and disturbances to spring up in smaller towns and rural areas nationwide.

“Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles”

Implications for mass public gatherings

The prospect of widespread unrest poses significant challenges for mass public gatherings, including concerts and other large-scale events. Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles. Moreover, the fear of violence could deter attendees, leading to lower turnout and financial losses for the entertainment industry.

In addition to heightened security concerns, local governments may impose restrictions or outright bans on large gatherings to prevent potential flashpoints for unrest. This could lead to cancellations or postponements of concerts, sports events, and other public gatherings, impacting not only the entertainment sector but also the broader economy.

Preparing for the future

Given the high stakes of the upcoming election and the potential for significant civil unrest, it is imperative that local and federal authorities, as well as private organisations, prepare accordingly. This includes bolstering security protocols, facilitating dialogue between opposing groups to reduce tensions, and ensuring that law enforcement is prepared to handle potential disturbances with a focus on de-escalation and protecting civil liberties.

In the long term, addressing the root causes of political and social discontent – such as economic inequality, racial injustice, and the erosion of trust in institutions—will be essential to mitigating the risk of future unrest. In the immediate term, the entertainment industry should reckon with a clear need to get ahead of these issues and investigate the possibility of transferring the risk of business interruption and event cancellation to the insurance industry. Another route of course is to deal with the appendices in contracts with agents, venues and promoters contracts with a risk management lens. Taking advice on this should fall to brokers in the space with a special understanding of the market and the issues.

Conclusion

The likelihood of riots, civil disturbance, and unrest in the US following the 2024 presidential election is significant, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden emerges victorious. The potential for such unrest to spread across the country, affecting not just the nation’s capital but also smaller communities, is real and warrants serious consideration. For mass public gatherings, including concerts, this climate of uncertainty necessitates enhanced security and contingency planning. Reviewing business insurance arrangements and contractual force majeure clauses and appendices is essential. As America stands at this crossroads, the actions taken today will shape the ability of the public entertainment industries ability to navigate the challenges of tomorrow.

Matthew Meredith is CEO of LMP Group Entertainment Insurance

 


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US biz faces “mass collapse” as Trump abandons talks

The National Independent Venue Association (NIVA) has urged US president Donald Trump to work with legislators on emergency funding for the live sector, after Trump announced he is walking away from talks over further stimulus funding until after 3 November’s presidential election.

Trump, who is recovering from Covid-19, said yesterday (6 October) he has instructed aides to stop negotiations on a new stimulus package until after the election. “Immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill [sic] that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business,” he tweeted.

Rival presidential candidate Joe Biden accused Trump of “turn[ing] his back” on Americans hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. “If you are out of work, if your business is closed, if your child’s school is shut down, if you are seeing layoffs in your community, Donald Trump decided today that none of that – none of it – matters to him,” said Biden.

Trump’s tweet came as an unwelcome surprise to NVIA, which is counting on the speedy passage of the Save Our Stages Act – part of the wider ‘Heroes Act’ stimulus package – to support the grassroots venue sector through a difficult winter.

“This is real. We need help. We urge Congress and the White House to continue negotiations”

In a statement, NIVA’s director of communications, Audrey Fix Schaefer, says anything less than the immediate resumption of talks would be disastrous for its hundreds of member venues.

“We have been sounding the alarm since April that if our members don’t get emergency assistance, they will go under forever – and it’s happening,” comments Fix Schaefer.

“This is real. We need help. We urge Congress and the White House to continue negotiations and reach a deal quickly or there will be a mass collapse of this industry.

“The Save Our Stages Act has already passed the House [of Representatives] and has strong bipartisan support, with more than 160 Congresspeople cosponsoring, because they know independent venues can be part of our country’s economic renewal once it’s safe to welcome people back – if our venues can survive this pandemic.”

“We’re also hoping for the sake of our furloughed employees that the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance will be extended, as people are suffering through no fault of their own,” she adds.

 


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US election: Venues turn into polling stations

Live Nation has announced plans to use more than 100 of its US venues as polling stations for the American presidential election on 3 November.

The concert giant says it is working with local authorities to examine the feasibility of using Live Nation-owned venues across the country as polling centres, with the Wiltern (1,850-cap.) and Hollywood Palladium (3,800-cap.) in Los Angeles, Emo’s (1,700-cap.) in Austin, Texas, and the Buckhead Theatre (1,800-cap.) in Atlanta already confirmed.

The Fillmore (2,500-cap.) in Philadelphia is in the “final stages of the vetting process”, it adds.

“Core to what we do at Live Nation is helping amplify voices on stage around the world, and supporting voting is another important way we want to continue making voices heard,” comments LN CEO Michael Rapino. “We’re honoured to work with such incredible partners and will do everything in our power to support and empower voter engagement among our employees and the public.”

The LN properties join other venues previously announced as serving as polling stations, including multiple arenas

The company has also partnered with More Than a Vote, a non-profit organisation supporting black voters, and announced it will give its employees paid time off to vote.

The Live Nation properties join other venues previously announced as serving as polling stations, including multiple arenas. They include Madison Square Garden in New York, the Los Angeles Forum, State Farm Arena in Atlanta and Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas.

“As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to make mass gatherings difficult, we are excited to partner with New York City’s board of elections,” says Madison Square Garden’s Rich Constable, “and support our community by providing a large-scale venue in the heart of New York City that can accommodate social distancing and serve as a safe place for residents to exercise their right to vote.”

The US presidential election will be held on Tuesday 3 November 2020, pitting incumbent president Donald Trump against Democratic challenger Joe Biden.

 


This article forms part of IQ’s Covid-19 resource centre – a knowledge hub of essential guidance and updating resources for uncertain times.

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Free entertainment event tickets for unpaid US federal workers

Organisations across the United States are offering free event tickets to furloughed government workers, in a show of solidarity with employees who have not received paychecks since the beginning of the government shutdown in December.

Over 800,000 federal workers are going without pay as a result of the shutdown which began on 22 December, making it officially the longest in US history.

In response, live music venues, cinemas, sports teams and museums across the country have offered tickets to events free of charge.

Exhibition basketball team Harlem Globetrotters are offering complimentary tickets to any government employee currently on furlough. The offer includes any ticket to the team’s 2019 Fan Powered North American tour and will remain valid for as long as the shutdown continues.

“As the Ambassadors of Goodwill, we want to show our support to all those government workers whose paychecks, and by extension their families, are directly impacted,” said Globetrotter president Howard Smith.

“We want to offer our friends the happiness that live music and the performing arts can provide”

Symphonies around the country are similarly doing their bit to help the workers. The Spokane Symphony Orchestra in Washington is among those offering free tickets to shows.

“We are sorry for the hardships our federal workers have had to endure during the shutdown. We want to offer our friends some wonderful music and entertainment to give them the happiness that live music and the performing arts can provide,” announced symphony executive director Jeff vom Saal.

Orchestras in Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Boston have also made tickets available.

A disagreement in Congress initiated the shutdown after president Donald Trump refused to approve the federal budget unless it included US$5.7 billion towards the building of the Mexican border wall. Democrats rejected the request, placing the government in deadlock.

US rapper Cardi B spoke out against the shutdown in an Instagram video posted yesterday. The video, in which the rapper refers to the country as a “hellhole”, has so far received over 12.5 million views.

 


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Corporates face ticket price rise after Trump axes deduction

The days of American businesses hiring boxes for clients at concerts and other live events could be coming to a close, after a recent tax overhaul eliminated a 50% deduction for entertainment-related business expenses.

The headline figures from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, signed into law on 22 December, include reduced rates of income tax (until 2025) and corporation tax (permanently), predicted by Trump to deliver a surging economy and thousands of new jobs.

However, the new legislation also eliminates a 50% deduction for business expenses for “entertainment, amusement or recreation”, meaning firms will see a doubling of their costs for concert tickets and hospitality for clients.

Eliminating the deduction “is really going to hurt the small businesses that need to promote their business by entertaining clients”, Charles Capetanakis, a lawyer at New York legal firm Davidoff Hutcher & Citron, tells Bloomberg Politics.

The loss of the entertainment expenses is “painful”, adds Washington, DC, lobbyist Ryan Ellis, although he notes with relief a 50% tax break for client meals was left untouched by the Tax Cuts Act.

 


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Blavatnik, IMG’s Shustorovich drawn into Trump Russia probe

Two prominent entertainment business figures have been drawn into the ongoing investigation into alleged Russian interference in last year’s US presidential election.

Sir Len Blavatnik, whose Access Industries holding company owns Warner Music Group, and Alexander Shustorovich, the chief executive of performing arts agency IMG Artists, are reportedly under scrutiny from investigators led by special counsel Robert Mueller, who is overseeing a probe into the Trump presidential campaign’s alleged links with the Russian government.

According to the Dallas Morning News, political contributions by Sir Len – a Ukrainian-born American/British businessman who had previously donated to both parties – took a “hard right turn” in 2015–16, when he gave more than US$6m to Republican party political action committees (PACs).

Of that $6m, the paper says, the majority, $3.5m went to a PAC associated with Kentucky Republican senator and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, with smaller amounts donated to PACs backing senator Marco Rubio ($1.5m), Wisconsin governor Scott Walker ($1.1m) and Trump’s Inaugural Committee ($1m).

Len Blavatnik and Alexander Shustorovich are reportedly under scrutiny from investigators led by special counsel Robert Mueller

Shustorovich, a Russian-American business magnate with business interests in TV, radio and other media, similarly gave $1m to the Inaugural Committee, which was accepted by the Trump team – despite the rejection of a previous attempt to donate to the Republicans, in 2000, because of concerns over his ties to the Russian government.

Two other men, Andrew Intrater and Kukes – neither of which have any history of political donations – are also reportedly of interest to investigators. Both have been employees of Sir Len: Intrater is chief executive of Columbus Nova, a division of Renova, an investment company co-founded by Blavatnik and his business partner Viktor Vekselberg in 1990, while Kukes worked for Blavatnik and Vekselberg’s TNK from 1998 to 2003.

In addition to owning Warner Music, Access Industries is an investor in Spotify, Deezer and Songkick, the latter of which Warner partially acquired in July. Blavatnik was knighted in 2017 for his philanthropy.

Democratic representative Adam Schiff told ABC News he believes the contributions to be legal, as all donors are US citizens, “unless the contributions were directed by a foreigner”. He added, however, that they “could still be of interest to investigators examining allegations of Russian influence on the 2016 campaign. Obviously, if there were those that had associations with the Kremlin that were contributing, that would be of keen concern.”

 


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Stricter immigration and rising visa fees ‘could harm touring’

Last week’s announcement by the British government it is to enshrine the date of Britain’s exit from the EU – 29 March 2019 – in law has once again thrust into the spotlight the issue of freedom of movement after Brexit, with leading visa experts warning of the impact a ‘no-deal’ Brexit could have on international touring.

“If the current customs regulations are made more time-consuming [post-Brexit] that will impact live tours, putting tight time schedules at risk,” Steve Richard of UK-based T&S Immigration Services tells IQ.

While the unwelcome return of visas for artists and carnets for equipment – both for British passport holders in Europe and EU artists playing the UK – is by no means a certainty, Oleg Gaidar of Artist and Entertainer Visas Global says he has already received enquiries from managers about the possibility of attaining European passports for the UK clients with European parents or grandparents. “That shows us the concern of people who are trying to look ahead and at least secure the principle to play shows in Europe without needing work permits,” he comments.

One potential solution, backed by UK Music and at least one prominent pro-Brexit MP, is a temporary ‘touring passport’ for British artists playing EU countries, although the proposal has yet to find support from the British government, which is currently negotiating with EU authorities over trade and Britain’s supposed exit bill.

The UK’s uncertain future aside, visa experts across the world are already grappling with an increasingly complex international touring market – not least in the US, where the surprise election of Donald Trump and stricter immigration rules caught out a number of acts this year, including at least ten artists heading to South by Southwest 2017.

“The goalposts are always changing, and very often people aren’t on the same page,” says Michelle Rubio of LA-based Creative Mind Access Visas & Passport Services.

“The goalposts are always changing, and very often people aren’t on the same page”

Among the recent changes in the US are tighter scrutiny of first-time visa applications, adds Andy Corrigan of UK-based Viva La Visa, which has looked after visa processing for tours by Ed Sheeran, Kings of Leon (pictured) and Sam Smith, including “more stringent questioning at American embassies and are being asked more searching questions than they previously would have been.”

Also of concern is the recent hike in fees for ‘non-immigrant worker’ visas, with the fee for filing a US visa alone now US$460, rising to $1,225 for the fast-track service.

Although the United States remains one of the trickiest and most expensive countries for touring parties to visit, it is far from the only market to have tightened immigration procedures. In the past two years, Russia and China have both introduced biometric fingerprint testing at select border controls. In 2015, Argentina introduced work visa requirements for British nationals, while UK passport holders flying to Canada now have to fill in an ESTA-type form online prior to travel, and acquire waivers if they have certain criminal convictions.

In line with tougher procedures, visa-processing fees have also increased in many touring hotspots, including Australia, which has removed bulk discounts for large tours that capped visa fees at A$7,200 (US$5,450). Now it costs A$275 per person – or between A$22,000 and $27,500 for a touring production of 80–100 people.

“Where one country eases up, it feels like another starts tightening the buckle a little harder,” says Rubio.

Read more about how global experts are keeping artists and crews on the move in the full feature in IQ 74.

 


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Visas and work permits

“One thing that you can always count on is that everything is in a constant state of flux, and the changes will probably happen quicker than you can keep up with,” says Michelle Rubio about navigating the many challenges and potential pitfalls that exist within the complex world of visa services, immigration and work permits.

“The goalposts are always changing, and very often people aren’t on the same page,” elaborates Rubio, a senior manager for Los Angeles-based Creative Mind Access Visas & Passport Services. She casts her mind back to this summer for an example of just a few of the many unexpected complications that can derail the process and – in the worst-case scenario – potentially lead to delayed or cancelled shows.

“I had just submitted some visa applications to the Russian consulate in San Francisco when President Trump ordered its immediate closure,” recalls Rubio. “Thankfully, there was a delay with the courier and they didn’t show up on time, so the applications couldn’t be submitted. Otherwise, all my [clients’] passports would have been stuck there.

“I’m normally cursing couriers, but, oh, my god, that was a wonderful mistake.”

“In the current political climate, with increasing local labour protectionism, planning strategically … is more important than ever”

The incident also gives some small insight into the wealth of unpredictable hurdles that immigration specialists can face on a day-to-day basis when applying for permits.

“In the current political climate, with increasing local labour protectionism, looking ahead, planning strategically and understanding the visa process requirements and consulate processing times is more important than ever,” agrees Sophie Amable, director of AE Visas USA, which primarily deals with UK and European artists and crew travelling to North America.

“Immigration is changing globally, and US immigration is also changing all the time, so getting expert advice before the time of booking is really important and can save you a lot of time and money,” she states.

 


Read the rest of this feature in the digital edition of IQ 74:

 

 


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