Trump’s tariffs: The live business reacts

The live music world is coming to terms with US president Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, amid fears of an impending global trade war.

Stocks took a hit and the dollar plunged to a six-month low in the wake of the American commander-in-chief’s announcement of a “baseline” 10% tax on all imports into the US, to be applied on every country from this Saturday (5 April).

The European Union faces a 20% tariff, while higher rates of up to 50% will be imposed on dozens of other countries dubbed the “worst offenders” by the president. Trump declared yesterday (2 April) as “Liberation Day” when confirming his plans – which he insists will make America rich again – during a 50-minute speech at the White House.

Meanwhile, with Trump having raised levies on Chinese imports to 20% last month, China’s new 34% rate means it will now face a combined total tariff of 54%.

Although the full implications for the international touring business remain to be seen, there are expectations the tariffs will impact equipment manufacturers and production equipment in particular, with  increased costs for goods such as building materials, as well as technology, F&B and merchandise.

“This ‘tariff war’ just started – let’s see where it goes and how long it lasts”

Agent Jarred Arfa, EVP, head of global music, for Los Angeles-headquartered Independent Artist Group (IAG) admits to concerns.

“I do worry that tariffs here in America will lead to further inflation on basic goods and services, leaving less discretionary income for entertainment like concerts,” he tells IQ. “There is just a lot of uncertainty in the economy now, which will have a negative impact on consumer sentiment. Hopefully, this is all short lived.”

Phil Rodriguez, boss of Miami, Florida-headquartered Latin music promoter Move Concerts, argues it is too early to gauge the impact on touring.

“Common sense would dictate that if prices go up, this will result in less disposable income and this may have a detrimental impact on fans buying tickets,” he surmises. “But it really is way too early to be certain of anything. This ‘tariff war’ just started – let’s see where it goes and how long it lasts.”

President of Toronto-based BAM! Baird Artists Management Consulting Robert Baird observes that Trump’s tariffs “have sent the world economy reeling”.

“That cannot be good for the arts,” says Baird, a former president of North American Performing Arts Managers and Agents (NAPAMA). “A depressed economy will mean less disposable income and that will hurt the box office. Global tariffs will result in higher prices and higher prices will mean that global touring will be more expensive. And the profit margins for most artists are slim already, so decreased touring is imminent.

“Add all of this to the political climate in America and we see a narrowing of the possibilities for touring to North America for foreign artists.”

“I fear that a global trade war will affect the amount of US bands that tour Europe”

Offering a European view, Esben Marcher, director of Danish live music trade body Dansk Live, points to several potential results of the tariffs.

“Production costs, which have been on the rise since after Covid, will most likely grow, making it more expensive for all organisers and promoters to set up shows or festivals,” he contends. “The way US bands tour will probably be affected in some way, too. To my knowledge the Trump administration is aiming for tariffs on goods, not services, but I fear that a global trade war will affect the amount of US bands that tour Europe.”

Marcher adds, however, that his greatest concern is how the tariffs will affect the overall economy and the purchasing power of the audiences.

“In a situation with rising tickets prices as a result of higher production cost and high inflation, I fear that the positive development we have experienced in the last couple of years will come to a end,” he contends.

Last month, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projected the tariffs would lead to global growth slowing to 3.1% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, while revising its inflation forecast upwards by 0.3 percentage points to 3.8%, compared to its Economic Outlook in December.

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