‘We’re going to grow this business aggressively’

Live Nation chief Michael Rapino has reflected on the evolution of the music business and offered a bright forecast for the company’s future in a new interview.

The president and CEO was quizzed about the LN’s impact on the music landscape, ticket pricing and Adele’s triumphant German residency, as well as wider industry issues, at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference.

Live Nation posted $6.02 billion revenue in its most recent financial results covering Q2 2024 – an increase of 7% on the equivalent quarter last year.

Here are a selection of highlights from yesterday’s (10 September) conversation in the US…

On the effect of the internet and streaming…

“For 50 years, the music business was very controlled: record labels, MTV, radio, the gatekeepers. It was entirely a US/Western Europe business: you had 100 dates – you toured 60 in America, 30 in Europe – and that was the only place you could really make money. [Then] everything unlocks, and all of a sudden you have a 14-year-old anywhere in the world with a phone that knows the next Kendrick [Lamar] song. That demand was always there, it was just never marketed to because of the old model. That consumer is now marketed to every day on Instagram, TikTok, Spotify, so that has been the greatest kind of supercharge to the live music business in general. You have this whole new base of global consumers that were under-serviced from an enterprise perspective – venues, ticketing, all of those things in Latin America, South America, Asia – that will get there and make this even a better business.”

On Live Nation’s impact on the music industry…

“For 30/40 years, it was always about the labels. Promoters were always a little ‘Wild West car salesmen’, so we were the first company that kind of professionalised them, brought them together and consolidated them on a global basis, and started setting some new standards. As we saw it, the artists wanted a better service; they wanted someone that thought globally.”

“This has been a very consistent industry. I don’t think there’s another industry that has an 8-9% compounded growth for the last 20-25 years”

On the importance of data to artists…

“They’re brands now and they know where their fans are. We just successfully did this incredible 10-night run with Adele in Munich. The idea that we would sit there and say, ‘We’re going to take a bet that you’re going to sell 700,000 tickets in one city; we’re going to spend $100 million building this incredible temporary stadium with the largest video screen in history,’ you don’t make those bets [without] fan data. Adele would know how many fans she has in Europe; how many in Munich; how many follow her; how big of a potential radius. Artists now are much, much smarter around their data.”

On the growth of the business…

“If we zoom out, this has been a very consistent industry. I don’t think there’s another industry that has an 8-9% compounded growth for the last 20-25 years, through recessions and [everything] else. I believe, in the next decade, that 8-9% will continue to be the beacon. This will be an industry that we should look at to have continual global growth on an annual basis. We doubled our business in two years in 2022 and ’23. We had some incredible pent-up demand, and this year is the first year we’re probably feeling a little bit of the hangover effect of that huge stadium business for two years. So we always knew this year was going to be a little light on stadiums, but we were going to do our best then to monetise our venues, our amphitheatres, where the business walks in our door and we can manage it. The fact that we grew almost 80% for two years – and this year we’re still going to be flat to growth – is exceptional.”

“We know next year is going to be a monster stadium year”

On 2025…

“It’s still early, so most things are set in stone, but there’s always things that shift. But our stadium business in ’25 looks like it’s bigger than ’23 right now. That’s a big number. Our arena business for ’24 looks bigger than it was this year, and we had a good arena year. So we think it’s probably the best of everything next year – a strong hike on the top end and consistent on the amphitheatre end. We know next year is going to be a monster stadium year.”

On ticket pricing…

“As much as it makes headlines on the top end, it’s still the most affordable opportunity out there. On average, 75% of tickets are under $100 and almost half the tickets are under $50. Look at it compared to sports: we’ve never been able to figure out this PR struggle, but in sport it’s like a badge of honour to say the courtside [seats] are $7,000, [yet] you’re horrible if you charge $800 for the front row at a concert. So it’s an incredibly affordable opportunity in the big picture. Music inspires; it’s one of the most passionate consumer experiences. In all of our data, it ranks at number one or two – it’s higher than any other Kodak moment.”

On the future…

“We’re going to be a business that will continually show that the live industry is resilient. Regardless of what economic challenges are going on, I think it’s a very resilient industry. Our job… is to make sure any of the noise on the regulation side doesn’t affect our business. It’s business as usual, pedal down to the ground, and we’re going to grow this business aggressively, as we have. And we think we’ll continually be the story that overdelivers.”

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