Economist Will Page delivers his festival forecast

Former Spotify and PRS for Music chief economist Will Page has offered his take on the “crisis” engulfing the UK’s festival scene.

Page recently penned an op-ed, We’ve Got To Rethink Festivals, for Music Business Worldwide, in which he pored over the cancellation of more than 50 festivals in the UK in 2024 and considered what it meant for the live business looking ahead.

The list of events either postponed, cancelled or shut down includes NASS Festival, Bradford’s Challenge Festival, El Dorado, Pennfest, Connect Music Festival, 110 Above Festival, Leopollooza, Long Division, Bluedot, Barn On The Farm and Towersey Festival – the UK’s longest-running independent – with the majority of organisers blaming significant increases in operational costs.

Speaking to IQ, Page pinpoints five key factors as the major contributors to the current state of play: costs (“out of control”); demand (“less appetite for risk”); supply (“the algorithm turns us into a field of niches”); culture (“the pandemic wounds of 2020 are still healing”) and weather (“why bother with a major UK festival for £300 when Lisbon costs £30)”.

Given similar reports from the US and Australian festival markets, Page concludes: “There’s something much wider at play here. Hence the need to rethink.”

“The main lesson is that we – as in the British music industry – have been late to wake up to inflation”

He continues: “To quote Richard Kramer, co-host of the Bubble Trouble podcast, it did feel like the whole British live music industry was getting ‘over their skis’ with the post-pandemic bounce back – and that’s when bubbles turn into trouble.

“Saying that, I was not aware of the cost element until a few months ago, when promoters were saying production costs had risen by 50% in two years, and the cost of US talent had become prohibitive. So with the benefit of hindsight, you could argue it was foreseeable. But the main lesson is that we – as in the British music industry – have been late to wake up to inflation, be it concerts or streaming. We’ve been asleep at the wheel – me included.”

Page references the plight of the independent sector in particular, describing the situation as “brutal”.

“Of that list of 53 [cancelled] festivals, most of them are independent where the impact of costs is so much more pronounced,” he says. “The ability to accommodate these costs is much more limited. Also, the motives for independent festivals are not necessarily profit maximising – many have admirable charitable goals as their focus. What’s more, it’s these smaller stages where the headliners of tomorrow often start out – we should all be worried.

“But let’s also recognise the tail is getting snapped, but the head of the distribution – the big festivals – are not finding it easy either. It’s a sensitive subject, for sure, but you won’t find the words ‘sold out’ next to many big events and we’re in mid-July.”

“Festivals of the future need to double down on curation”

In addition, Page, who authored the books Pivot and Tarzan Economics, reflects on the extent to which the headliner shortage is responsible for the struggles of many events.

“Glenn McDonald, author of the brilliant book You Have not Heard your Favourite Song makes a insightful point: ‘A genre-unfocused festival-poster lineup starts to just look like a playlist that has been made and personalised for somebody else,'” says Page. “Let’s think about that – festivals work when we all gather around the same headline stage together and sing those same songs like they are hymns. That very notion, as simple as it is, is beginning to creek.

“Now, the algorithm has turned us into a field of niches. We are all catered for by our unique tastes and we’re stuck down our own rabbit hole as a result. That’s us — our demographic.

“So, what about the next generation coming through? Festivals of the future need to double down on curation. The next generation may not have much in “musical-common” with each other but there will still be demand for intimacy – something the internet can’t deliver but festivals can.”

Debating whether 2024 is more of an off-year or a sign of things to come, Page finds some positives to be drawn while offering his prediction for where the market is headed in the coming years.

“Headline inflation is now under control – that’s a big plus, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into production costs,” he says. “Promoters and venue owners are agile though so I’d be hopeful they are coming down too.

“As for how things might look, I keep thinking about the analogy of a supermarket and specialist butcher. Everything you can find in the butcher, is also for sale in a supermarket – so why do consumers afford the hassle of two visits? The specialist butcher in this sense is the genre-focused festival – and I think the near-term future may be found in this lane. Festivals with a clear musical USP. From a field of niches all the way to a niche headliner to a packed field. Envisage a pendulum swinging away from scale and towards intimacy. That.”

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