As the United States approaches yet another critical election, the potential for civil unrest looms large regardless of whether the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, or the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, secures victory. The nation’s current political climate, characterised by intense polarisation and deep-seated mistrust, provides fertile ground for significant disturbances post-election.
The precedent set by the Jan 6th insurrection could evolve into a wider issue even if incarceration doesn’t become a reality for the former POTUS Donald Trump. Understanding the likelihood and potential spread of such unrest, as well as its implications for public life and events, is crucial for anticipating and preparing for the days ahead.
Polarisation and its consequences
The American political landscape has grown increasingly fractured over the past few years. Social media, partisan news outlets, and political rhetoric have all contributed to a society where ideological divides run deep. In this context, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election could act as a catalyst for widespread civil disturbance.
If Donald Trump wins, his supporters may feel vindicated, but those who oppose him – many of whom view his presidency as a threat to democracy – might resort to protests and civil disobedience. Conversely, a Joe Biden victory could provoke Trump loyalists, who might perceive the result as illegitimate yet again, especially in light of debunked claims around election integrity.
Likelihood of riots and civil disturbance
The potential for riots and civil disturbances following the election is high. Historically, the US has witnessed significant unrest in response to contentious political events, such as the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and the January 6 Capitol riot. These events underscore the capacity for rapid mobilisation and the eruption of violence. There is even the prospect, with a Trump win, of martial law.
Major cities like Washington DC, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago are likely epicentres for demonstrations. However, the spread of unrest could extend far beyond these urban centres. The proliferation of social media allows for the rapid dissemination of calls to action, enabling protests and disturbances to spring up in smaller towns and rural areas nationwide.
“Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles”
Implications for mass public gatherings
The prospect of widespread unrest poses significant challenges for mass public gatherings, including concerts and other large-scale events. Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles. Moreover, the fear of violence could deter attendees, leading to lower turnout and financial losses for the entertainment industry.
In addition to heightened security concerns, local governments may impose restrictions or outright bans on large gatherings to prevent potential flashpoints for unrest. This could lead to cancellations or postponements of concerts, sports events, and other public gatherings, impacting not only the entertainment sector but also the broader economy.
Preparing for the future
Given the high stakes of the upcoming election and the potential for significant civil unrest, it is imperative that local and federal authorities, as well as private organisations, prepare accordingly. This includes bolstering security protocols, facilitating dialogue between opposing groups to reduce tensions, and ensuring that law enforcement is prepared to handle potential disturbances with a focus on de-escalation and protecting civil liberties.
In the long term, addressing the root causes of political and social discontent – such as economic inequality, racial injustice, and the erosion of trust in institutions—will be essential to mitigating the risk of future unrest. In the immediate term, the entertainment industry should reckon with a clear need to get ahead of these issues and investigate the possibility of transferring the risk of business interruption and event cancellation to the insurance industry. Another route of course is to deal with the appendices in contracts with agents, venues and promoters contracts with a risk management lens. Taking advice on this should fall to brokers in the space with a special understanding of the market and the issues.
Conclusion
The likelihood of riots, civil disturbance, and unrest in the US following the 2024 presidential election is significant, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden emerges victorious. The potential for such unrest to spread across the country, affecting not just the nation’s capital but also smaller communities, is real and warrants serious consideration. For mass public gatherings, including concerts, this climate of uncertainty necessitates enhanced security and contingency planning. Reviewing business insurance arrangements and contractual force majeure clauses and appendices is essential. As America stands at this crossroads, the actions taken today will shape the ability of the public entertainment industries ability to navigate the challenges of tomorrow.
Matthew Meredith is CEO of LMP Group Entertainment Insurance.
Get more stories like this in your inbox by signing up for IQ Index, IQ’s free email digest of essential live music industry news.
Post-election: A reflection on America’s future
LMP Group CEO Matthew Meredith details why the potential for civil unrest after the 2024 vote poses serious challenges for mass gatherings
13 Jun 2024
As the United States approaches yet another critical election, the potential for civil unrest looms large regardless of whether the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, or the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, secures victory. The nation’s current political climate, characterised by intense polarisation and deep-seated mistrust, provides fertile ground for significant disturbances post-election.
The precedent set by the Jan 6th insurrection could evolve into a wider issue even if incarceration doesn’t become a reality for the former POTUS Donald Trump. Understanding the likelihood and potential spread of such unrest, as well as its implications for public life and events, is crucial for anticipating and preparing for the days ahead.
Polarisation and its consequences
The American political landscape has grown increasingly fractured over the past few years. Social media, partisan news outlets, and political rhetoric have all contributed to a society where ideological divides run deep. In this context, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election could act as a catalyst for widespread civil disturbance.
If Donald Trump wins, his supporters may feel vindicated, but those who oppose him – many of whom view his presidency as a threat to democracy – might resort to protests and civil disobedience. Conversely, a Joe Biden victory could provoke Trump loyalists, who might perceive the result as illegitimate yet again, especially in light of debunked claims around election integrity.
Likelihood of riots and civil disturbance
The potential for riots and civil disturbances following the election is high. Historically, the US has witnessed significant unrest in response to contentious political events, such as the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and the January 6 Capitol riot. These events underscore the capacity for rapid mobilisation and the eruption of violence. There is even the prospect, with a Trump win, of martial law.
Major cities like Washington DC, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago are likely epicentres for demonstrations. However, the spread of unrest could extend far beyond these urban centres. The proliferation of social media allows for the rapid dissemination of calls to action, enabling protests and disturbances to spring up in smaller towns and rural areas nationwide.
Implications for mass public gatherings
The prospect of widespread unrest poses significant challenges for mass public gatherings, including concerts and other large-scale events. Event organisers may face increased pressure to enhance security measures, potentially resulting in higher costs and logistical hurdles. Moreover, the fear of violence could deter attendees, leading to lower turnout and financial losses for the entertainment industry.
In addition to heightened security concerns, local governments may impose restrictions or outright bans on large gatherings to prevent potential flashpoints for unrest. This could lead to cancellations or postponements of concerts, sports events, and other public gatherings, impacting not only the entertainment sector but also the broader economy.
Preparing for the future
Given the high stakes of the upcoming election and the potential for significant civil unrest, it is imperative that local and federal authorities, as well as private organisations, prepare accordingly. This includes bolstering security protocols, facilitating dialogue between opposing groups to reduce tensions, and ensuring that law enforcement is prepared to handle potential disturbances with a focus on de-escalation and protecting civil liberties.
In the long term, addressing the root causes of political and social discontent – such as economic inequality, racial injustice, and the erosion of trust in institutions—will be essential to mitigating the risk of future unrest. In the immediate term, the entertainment industry should reckon with a clear need to get ahead of these issues and investigate the possibility of transferring the risk of business interruption and event cancellation to the insurance industry. Another route of course is to deal with the appendices in contracts with agents, venues and promoters contracts with a risk management lens. Taking advice on this should fall to brokers in the space with a special understanding of the market and the issues.
Conclusion
The likelihood of riots, civil disturbance, and unrest in the US following the 2024 presidential election is significant, regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden emerges victorious. The potential for such unrest to spread across the country, affecting not just the nation’s capital but also smaller communities, is real and warrants serious consideration. For mass public gatherings, including concerts, this climate of uncertainty necessitates enhanced security and contingency planning. Reviewing business insurance arrangements and contractual force majeure clauses and appendices is essential. As America stands at this crossroads, the actions taken today will shape the ability of the public entertainment industries ability to navigate the challenges of tomorrow.
Matthew Meredith is CEO of LMP Group Entertainment Insurance.
Get more stories like this in your inbox by signing up for IQ Index, IQ’s free email digest of essential live music industry news.
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