Goldman Sachs: Live to return to pre-corona levels by 2022

Investment bank and research firm Goldman Sachs has forecast a strong rebound for the live industry in 2021, in its 2020 Music in the Air report.

In 2016, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air: Stairway to Heaven report predicted that the live industry would grow by US$14 billion by 2030, with the sector benefitting from a greater preference for experiences among millennials and Generation Z, as well as access to new tech and data to help boost ticket sales.

Now, the bank has released a second report, which gives revenue projections for the music industry – comprising live, recorded and publishing – in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The report lowers its pre-pandemic forecast for the live industry by more than 75%, down to $7 billion, but predicts it will climb back to pre-Covid-19 levels within two years.

The report forecasts a “strong rebound in outer years”, predicting 26% revenue growth in 2021 and a further 18% increase in 2022

Lisa Yang, managing director of media and internet equity research at Goldman, says that up to 80% of all events scheduled for 2020 will be cancelled or postponed with a “gradual recovery” beginning from Q4.

The report forecasts a “strong rebound in outer years”, predicting 26% revenue growth in 2021 and a further 18% increase in 2022.

Yang displays confidence in the willingness of fans to return to live events, but states that the pace and timing of recovery will depend on the health and safety regulations around the world.

The bank’s long-term forecast looks positive for the industry, which it predicts will be worth $38 billion by 2030, putting the sector’s annual growth rate (CAGR) at 6% for the period of 2019 to 2030.

Yang also notes the success the industry has had with new methods of monetising and novel livestream models, making special mention to Travis Scott’s recent in-game performance in Fortnite, which attracted over 12 million concurrent viewers.

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